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Premier League · Ethiopia
Kedus Giorgis vs Negelle Arsi prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Kedus Giorgis host Negelle Arsi in the Premier League (Ethiopia) on 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Kedus Giorgis to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Kedus Giorgis 1–1 Negelle Arsi.
Going into the match, Kedus Giorgis had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Negelle Arsi had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Kedus Giorgis's last 10 and 3 of Negelle Arsi's last 10; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Kedus Giorgis averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Negelle Arsi averaged 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.88 goals from Kedus Giorgis and 1.00 from Negelle Arsi. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 36%, against 35%, 33% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 64%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Kedus Giorgis (green) and Negelle Arsi (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kedus Giorgis | DWDWW | 0.90 | 0.40 | 20% | 20% |
| Negelle Arsi | LWDWD | 1.00 | 1.00 | 30% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 68% | 1.33 |
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 55% | 1.69 |
| Kedus Giorgis Win | 34% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.70 |
| 0-0 | 20% | 4.75 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.