Juventud vs Penarol prediction and preview

23 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance X2Odds 1.20Market probability 77%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Juventud host Penarol in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 23 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Penarol to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Juventud had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 9. Penarol had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 9 conceded.

Both teams scored in 3 of Juventud's last 10 and 7 of Penarol's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Juventud averaged 1.56 goals scored and 0.94 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Penarol averaged 1.25 scored and 0.88 conceded across 16.

Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from Juventud and 1.03 from Penarol. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 35%, against 22%, 28% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Juventud (green) and Penarol (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form50% – 50%

Attack50% – 50%

Defence57% – 43%

Head-to-head25% – 75%

Goals33% – 67%

Overall strength40% – 60%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Juventud	LWWDD	1.20	0.90	30%	40%
Penarol	LDWDW	1.70	0.90	70%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

21 Apr 2026 · Penarol 2–2 Juventud

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance X2	77%	1.20
Over 1.5 Goals	69%	1.33
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	69%	1.36
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	65%	1.44
Under 2.5 Goals	55%	1.73
BTTS No	51%	1.80
Penarol Win	50%	1.80
Over 8.5 Corners	50%	1.83

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.