Defensor Sporting vs Racing Montevideo prediction and preview

24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.40Market probability 67%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Defensor Sporting host Racing Montevideo in the Primera División (Uruguay) on 24 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Defensor Sporting had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 16. Racing Montevideo had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 16 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Defensor Sporting's last 10 and 4 of Racing Montevideo's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Defensor Sporting averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Racing Montevideo averaged 0.64 scored and 1.14 conceded across 14.

Our team-strength model expects about 0.91 goals from Defensor Sporting and 1.06 from Racing Montevideo. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 37%, against 31%, 29% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Defensor Sporting (green) and Racing Montevideo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form43% – 57%

Attack64% – 36%

Defence33% – 67%

Head-to-head85% – 15%

Goals83% – 17%

Overall strength58% – 41%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Defensor Sporting	LLLLW	1.10	1.60	60%	40%
Racing Montevideo	WLLLD	1.10	1.60	40%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

30 May 2026 · Racing Montevideo 0–0 Defensor Sporting
18 Apr 2026 · Racing Montevideo 1–1 Defensor Sporting

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	71%	1.33
Double Chance 12	70%	1.33
Over 1.5 Goals	67%	1.40
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	66%	1.44
Under 2.5 Goals	58%	1.62
Over 8.5 Corners	54%	1.73
BTTS No	51%	1.80
Over 2.5 Goals	42%	2.25

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.