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Kirin Cup · International
Japan vs New Zealand prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Japan host New Zealand in the Kirin Cup (International) on 5 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Japan to win or draw. No bookmaker price was available for this market when the prediction was published, so no percentage is shown.
Final score: Japan 2–1 New Zealand.
Going into the match, Japan had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 8 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 7. New Zealand had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 8, with 10 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Japan's last 8 and 5 of New Zealand's last 8; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Japan averaged 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home New Zealand averaged 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.06 goals from Japan and 0.94 from New Zealand. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 15%. For the published pick itself the model gives 85%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Japan (green) and New Zealand (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | DWWLD | 1.75 | 0.88 | 63% | 63% |
| New Zealand | DWDLL | 1.25 | 2.25 | 63% | 75% |
Averages over each side's last 8 matches in our results archive before this fixture.