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UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · International
Italy U21 vs Poland U21 prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Italy U21 host Poland U21 in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (International) on 5 Oct 2026, 16:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Poland U21 to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.91, which the bookmaker market rated at about 49% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Italy U21 6–2 Poland U21.
Going into the match, Italy U21 had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 2 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 0. Poland U21 had won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 1, with 3 scored and 0 conceded.
Both teams scored in 0 of Italy U21's last 2 and 0 of Poland U21's last 1; 0 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Italy U21 averaged 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded across 1 matches; away from home Poland U21 averaged 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded across 0.
The 1X2 prices imply about 51% for Italy U21, 26% for the draw and 23% for Poland U21 once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Italy U21 (green) and Poland U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy U21 | WW | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0% | 0% |
| Poland U21 | W | 3.00 | 0.00 | 0% | 100% |
Averages over each side's last 2 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 1X | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.