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Premiership · Scotland
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Heart Of Midlothian host ST Mirren in the Premiership (Scotland) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Heart Of Midlothian 5–0 ST Mirren.
Going into the match, Heart Of Midlothian had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 12. ST Mirren had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Heart Of Midlothian's last 10 and 4 of ST Mirren's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Heart Of Midlothian averaged 2.45 goals scored and 1.09 conceded across 11 matches; away from home ST Mirren averaged 1.75 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.42 goals from Heart Of Midlothian and 1.31 from ST Mirren. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 19%, against 65%, 19% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Heart Of Midlothian (green) and ST Mirren (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | DLWWW | 2.20 | 1.20 | 90% | 70% |
| ST Mirren | LLLWD | 1.30 | 1.80 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Heart Of Midlothian Win | 65% | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.70 |
| Heart Of Midlothian HT & FT | 46% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.