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Premier League · Wales
GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
GAP Connah S Quay FC host Penybont in the Premier League (Wales) on 3 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: GAP Connah S Quay FC 1–0 Penybont.
Going into the match, GAP Connah S Quay FC had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 26 and conceding 6. Penybont had won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of GAP Connah S Quay FC's last 10 and 7 of Penybont's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home GAP Connah S Quay FC averaged 2.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Penybont averaged 1.78 scored and 1.00 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from GAP Connah S Quay FC and 0.90 from Penybont. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 23%, against 49%, 26% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between GAP Connah S Quay FC (green) and Penybont (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | WWWLD | 2.60 | 0.60 | 50% | 70% |
| Penybont | WWWWW | 2.20 | 0.90 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 55% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| GAP Connah S Quay FC Win | 49% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.