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Regionalliga - SudWest · Germany
FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846 prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FSV Mainz 05 II host SSV Ulm 1846 in the Regionalliga - SudWest (Germany) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.41, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 II 1–1 SSV Ulm 1846.
Going into the match, FSV Mainz 05 II had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 20. SSV Ulm 1846 had won 1, drawn 5 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of FSV Mainz 05 II's last 10 and 5 of SSV Ulm 1846's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FSV Mainz 05 II averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.64 conceded across 11 matches; away from home SSV Ulm 1846 averaged 1.50 scored and 1.92 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.29 goals from FSV Mainz 05 II and 1.30 from SSV Ulm 1846. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 36%, against 40%, 24% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FSV Mainz 05 II (green) and SSV Ulm 1846 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 II | DLWLL | 1.00 | 2.00 | 70% | 70% |
| SSV Ulm 1846 | WDLDL | 1.20 | 1.70 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.27 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.41 |
| Double Chance 1X | 64% | 1.38 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.52 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.59 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.15 |
| FSV Mainz 05 II Win | 40% | 2.22 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- FSV Mainz 05 II form and statistics
- SSV Ulm 1846 form and statistics
- Regionalliga - SudWest statistics
Other Regionalliga - SudWest matches that day
- VfR Aalen vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Regionalliga - SudWest
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - Eintracht Frankfurt II vs Kaiserslautern II · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Regionalliga - SudWest
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - SGV Freiberg vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Regionalliga - SudWest
Published pick: SGV Freiberg Win - Hessen Kassel vs VfR Mannheim · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Regionalliga - SudWest
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.46 · FT 0–3 - Stuttgarter Kickers vs TSV Steinbach · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Regionalliga - SudWest
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.27 · FT 3–1