Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction and preview

29 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Under 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.53Market probability 62%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Fiorentina host Atalanta in the Serie A (Italy) on 29 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Fiorentina had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 20. Atalanta had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 17 conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of Fiorentina's last 10 and 6 of Atalanta's last 10; 9 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fiorentina averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Atalanta averaged 1.36 scored and 1.64 conceded across 11.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.47 goals from Fiorentina and 1.68 from Atalanta. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 42%, against 43%, 26% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Fiorentina (green) and Atalanta (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form50% – 50%

Attack44% – 56%

Defence55% – 45%

Head-to-head50% – 50%

Goals47% – 53%

Overall strength48% – 52%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Fiorentina	LLLDW	1.60	2.00	70%	90%
Atalanta	DLLWW	1.60	1.70	60%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

22 May 2026 · Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	79%	1.20
Double Chance 12	74%	1.28
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	72%	1.28
BTTS Yes	62%	1.50
Under 3.5 Goals	62%	1.53
Over 2.5 Goals	59%	1.62
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	59%	1.57
Over 8.5 Corners	54%	1.73

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.