FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Nürnberg prediction and preview

1 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC · Millerntor-Stadion, St. Pauli Burger

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.20Market probability 78%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

FC St. Pauli host 1. FC Nürnberg in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany) on 1 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, FC St. Pauli had won 2, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 11. 1. FC Nürnberg had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 17 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of FC St. Pauli's last 10 and 8 of 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC St. Pauli averaged 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded across 10 matches; away from home 1. FC Nürnberg averaged 2.75 scored and 1.58 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.73 goals from FC St. Pauli and 1.63 from 1. FC Nürnberg. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 36%, against 44%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 86%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between FC St. Pauli (green) and 1. FC Nürnberg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form53% – 47%

Attack38% – 62%

Defence78% – 22%

Head-to-head93% – 7%

Goals75% – 25%

Overall strength63% – 36%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
FC St. Pauli	DDWDD	1.10	1.10	60%	30%
1. FC Nürnberg	LLDDW	2.00	1.70	80%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	78%	1.20
BTTS 1st Half - No	75%	1.25
Double Chance 12	74%	1.28
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	73%	1.28
Under 3.5 Goals	64%	1.44
BTTS Yes	61%	1.53
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	61%	1.53
Over 2.5 Goals	57%	1.65

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.