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3. Liga · Germany
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Ingolstadt 04 host MSV Duisburg in the 3. Liga (Germany) on 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, FC Ingolstadt 04 had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 16. MSV Duisburg had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 25 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of FC Ingolstadt 04's last 10 and 9 of MSV Duisburg's last 10; 6 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Ingolstadt 04 averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home MSV Duisburg averaged 2.23 scored and 1.23 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.18 goals from FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.73 from MSV Duisburg. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 49%, against 30%, 26% and 44% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Ingolstadt 04 | WWLLL | 1.20 | 1.60 | 40% | 60% |
| MSV Duisburg | DWWWW | 2.50 | 1.50 | 90% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| MSV Duisburg Win | 44% | 2.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 3. Liga matches that day
- Stuttgart II vs Alemannia Aachen · 24 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC · 3. Liga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.44 - Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · 3. Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 - SV Meppen vs Würzburger Kickers · 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · 3. Liga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53 - FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl · 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · 3. Liga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.40 - SV Wehen vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 24 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · 3. Liga
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.53