Ethiopia Bunna vs Negelle Arsi prediction and preview

21 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance 1XOdds 1.30Market probability 70%Final score 0–3

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Ethiopia Bunna host Negelle Arsi in the Premier League (Ethiopia) on 21 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Ethiopia Bunna to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Ethiopia Bunna 0–3 Negelle Arsi.

Going into the match, Ethiopia Bunna had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Negelle Arsi had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 10 conceded.

Both teams scored in 4 of Ethiopia Bunna's last 10 and 3 of Negelle Arsi's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ethiopia Bunna averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Negelle Arsi averaged 0.63 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.

Our team-strength model expects about 0.94 goals from Ethiopia Bunna and 1.34 from Negelle Arsi. From that it rates a home win at 25%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 45%, against 35%, 35% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Ethiopia Bunna (green) and Negelle Arsi (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form60% – 40%

Attack67% – 33%

Defence33% – 67%

Head-to-head100% – 0%

Goals75% – 25%

Overall strength58% – 41%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Ethiopia Bunna	WLDWD	0.90	0.80	40%	40%
Negelle Arsi	DDLWD	0.90	1.00	30%	40%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 1X	70%	1.30
BTTS No	61%	1.51
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	54%	1.72
Ethiopia Bunna Win	35%	2.55
Draw	35%	2.60
0-0	20%	4.75

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.