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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Estoril vs Moreirense prediction and preview
25 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Estoril host Moreirense in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 25 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 73% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Estoril had won 0, drawn 4 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 14. Moreirense had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Estoril's last 10 and 4 of Moreirense's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Estoril averaged 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Moreirense averaged 0.82 scored and 1.91 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.01 goals from Estoril and 1.05 from Moreirense. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 35%, against 48%, 26% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 62%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Estoril (green) and Moreirense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estoril | DLLLD | 0.60 | 1.40 | 60% | 30% |
| Moreirense | LLDWL | 1.00 | 1.60 | 40% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 20 Apr 2026 · Moreirense 1–0 Estoril
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primeira Liga matches that day
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu · 25 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.53 - Nacional vs SC Braga · 25 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: SC Braga Win @ 1.55 - Rio Ave vs Famalicao · 25 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: Double Chance X2 @ 1.25