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Ligue 2 · France
Dunkerque vs Metz prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Dunkerque host Metz in the Ligue 2 (France) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Dunkerque had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 19. Metz had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Dunkerque's last 10 and 8 of Metz's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Dunkerque averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Metz averaged 1.13 scored and 1.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.57 goals from Dunkerque and 2.02 from Metz. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 48%, against 35%, 26% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Dunkerque (green) and Metz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ligue 2 matches that day
- Clermont Foot vs Guingamp · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Ligue 2
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.73 - Nancy vs Laval · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Ligue 2
Published pick: Nancy Win @ 1.57 - PAU vs Grenoble · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Ligue 2
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.33 - Sochaux vs Annecy · 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC · Ligue 2
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.36