Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. prediction and preview

19 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 1.5 GoalsOdds 1.28Market probability 74%Final score 1–0

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. in the Premier Division (Ireland) on 19 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 74% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Derry City 1–0 St Patrick's Athl..

Going into the match, Derry City had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 15. St Patrick's Athl. had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 8 conceded.

Both teams scored in 5 of Derry City's last 10 and 4 of St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10; 5 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Derry City averaged 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 14 matches; away from home St Patrick's Athl. averaged 1.50 scored and 1.08 conceded across 12.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.15 goals from Derry City and 1.05 from St Patrick's Athl.. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 32%, against 28%, 27% and 46% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Derry City (green) and St Patrick's Athl. (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form47% – 53%

Attack47% – 53%

Defence36% – 64%

Head-to-head64% – 36%

Goals57% – 43%

Overall strength49% – 50%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Derry City	LWWDW	2.00	1.50	50%	50%
St Patrick's Athl.	LWWWD	1.50	0.80	40%	40%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

2 Aug 2026 · St Patrick's Athl. 1–1 Derry City
22 May 2026 · Derry City 0–0 St Patrick's Athl.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Over 1.5 Goals	74%	1.28
Double Chance 12	73%	1.28
Under 3.5 Goals	71%	1.33
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	68%	1.36
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	66%	1.40
BTTS Yes	54%	1.75
Under 10.5 Corners	54%	1.73
Over 2.5 Goals	50%	1.90

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.