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Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Coruña vs Celta de Vigo III prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Coruña host Celta de Vigo III in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 10:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 56% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Coruña 3–1 Celta de Vigo III.
Going into the match, Coruña had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 18. Celta de Vigo III had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Coruña's last 10 and 6 of Celta de Vigo III's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Coruña averaged 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Celta de Vigo III averaged 2.60 scored and 1.00 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.01 goals from Coruña and 2.19 from Celta de Vigo III. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 43%, against 36%, 28% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Coruña (green) and Celta de Vigo III (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coruña | WLLLL | 1.40 | 1.80 | 70% | 70% |
| Celta de Vigo III | WLDWL | 2.10 | 1.20 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.24 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Coruña Win | 38% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.20 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.