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Serie D - Girone D · Italy
Correggese vs Pavia prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Correggese host Pavia in the Serie D - Girone D (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Correggese 2–1 Pavia.
Going into the match, Correggese had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 9 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Pavia had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Correggese's last 9 and 3 of Pavia's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Correggese averaged 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Pavia averaged 0.60 scored and 1.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.23 goals from Correggese and 0.69 from Pavia. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 20%, against 38%, 29% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Correggese (green) and Pavia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correggese | WLWDD | 1.00 | 0.89 | 67% | 22% |
| Pavia | DDDDL | 0.70 | 1.40 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.78 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
| Correggese Win | 38% | 2.35 |
| 1-0 | 13% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.