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Piauiense - 2 · Brazil
Comercial PI vs Flamengo PI prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Comercial PI host Flamengo PI in the Piauiense - 2 (Brazil) on 7 Oct 2026, 22:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.35, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Comercial PI 2–1 Flamengo PI.
Going into the match, Comercial PI had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 6 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Flamengo PI had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 6, with 9 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Comercial PI's last 6 and 3 of Flamengo PI's last 6; 4 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Comercial PI averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Flamengo PI averaged 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.52 goals from Comercial PI and 0.96 from Flamengo PI. From that it rates a home win at 49%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 23%, against 44%, 28% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Comercial PI (green) and Flamengo PI (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comercial PI | LWWDL | 1.50 | 1.17 | 83% | 67% |
| Flamengo PI | WLWDW | 1.50 | 1.17 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 6 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Oct 2026 · Flamengo PI 1–0 Comercial PI
- 6 Sep 2026 · Comercial PI 2–1 Flamengo PI
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.23 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.35 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
| Comercial PI Win | 44% | 2.04 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.12 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.