Club Leon U21 vs Toluca U21 prediction and preview

24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Double Chance X2Odds 1.33Market probability 67%Final score 1–4

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Club Leon U21 host Toluca U21 in the Liga MX U21 (Mexico) on 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Toluca U21 to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Club Leon U21 1–4 Toluca U21.

Going into the match, Club Leon U21 had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 11. Toluca U21 had won 9, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 6 conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of Club Leon U21's last 10 and 5 of Toluca U21's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Club Leon U21 averaged 1.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Toluca U21 averaged 1.38 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.

Our team-strength model expects about 1.09 goals from Club Leon U21 and 1.89 from Toluca U21. From that it rates a home win at 21%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 55%, against 32%, 27% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Club Leon U21 (green) and Toluca U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form44% – 56%

Attack33% – 67%

Defence50% – 50%

Head-to-head0% – 100%

Goals30% – 70%

Overall strength39% – 60%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Club Leon U21	LDWWW	1.70	1.10	70%	50%
Toluca U21	WWWWW	2.40	0.60	50%	60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Recent meetings

25 Apr 2026 · Toluca U21 4–1 Club Leon U21

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
Double Chance 12	73%	1.25
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	68%	1.35
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	66%	1.38
BTTS Yes	53%	1.75
Under 2.5 Goals	52%	1.73
Over 2.5 Goals	48%	2.08
Toluca U21 Win	40%	2.20
Draw	28%	3.30

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.