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National League - North · England
Chorley vs AFC Telford United prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Chorley host AFC Telford United in the National League - North (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Chorley 2–1 AFC Telford United.
Going into the match, Chorley had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 14. AFC Telford United had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Chorley's last 10 and 5 of AFC Telford United's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Chorley averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home AFC Telford United averaged 1.25 scored and 1.88 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.83 goals from Chorley and 0.88 from AFC Telford United. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 17%, against 38%, 26% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley | WWWLW | 1.90 | 1.40 | 60% | 60% |
| AFC Telford United | LLDDW | 1.00 | 1.80 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.65 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.