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Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Spain
Castro vs Tropezón prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Castro host Tropezón in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Castro 0–2 Tropezón.
Going into the match, Castro had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 9 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Tropezón had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Castro's last 9 and 2 of Tropezón's last 10; 3 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Castro averaged 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Tropezón averaged 1.13 scored and 0.75 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.49 goals from Castro and 1.49 from Tropezón. From that it rates a home win at 11%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 61%, against 21%, 25% and 54% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Castro (green) and Tropezón (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 9 May 2026 · Castro 0–2 Tropezón
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Tropezón Win | 54% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.69 |
| Tropezón HT & FT | 33% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.