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Serie C - Girone C · Italy
Casertana vs Bari prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Casertana host Bari in the Serie C - Girone C (Italy) on 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 70% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Casertana had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 13. Bari had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Casertana's last 10 and 3 of Bari's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Casertana averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Bari averaged 1.13 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.79 goals from Casertana and 1.03 from Bari. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 39%, against 38%, 29% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Casertana (green) and Bari (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.08 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie C - Girone C matches that day
- Team Altamura vs Potenza · 23 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone C
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.33