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III Liga - Group 4 · Poland
Busko-Zdroj vs Chełmianka Chełm prediction and preview
31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Busko-Zdroj host Chełmianka Chełm in the III Liga - Group 4 (Poland) on 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Chełmianka Chełm Win — Chełmianka Chełm to win. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Busko-Zdroj had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 24. Chełmianka Chełm had won 8, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Busko-Zdroj's last 10 and 3 of Chełmianka Chełm's last 10; 9 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Busko-Zdroj averaged 1.89 goals scored and 2.11 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Chełmianka Chełm averaged 1.55 scored and 0.91 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.88 goals from Busko-Zdroj and 1.90 from Chełmianka Chełm. From that it rates a home win at 16%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 60%, against 13%, 18% and 69% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 60%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Busko-Zdroj (green) and Chełmianka Chełm (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busko-Zdroj | LLLWL | 1.40 | 2.40 | 80% | 90% |
| Chełmianka Chełm | WWDDW | 1.70 | 0.30 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| Chełmianka Chełm Win | 73% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.63 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.76 |
| Chełmianka Chełm HT & FT | 49% | 1.91 |
| 2nd Half Higher Goals | 49% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 37% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other III Liga - Group 4 matches that day
- Wisłoka Dębica vs KSZO 1929 · 31 Oct 2026, 18:08 UTC · III Liga - Group 4
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.62 - Sokół Kolb. vs Hetman Zamosc · 31 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 4
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.56 - Jarosław vs Czarni Połaniec · 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC · III Liga - Group 4
Published pick: Double Chance 1X - Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Naprzód · 31 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · III Liga - Group 4
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals