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Premier League 2 Division One · England
Burnley U21 vs Aston Villa U21 prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Burnley U21 host Aston Villa U21 in the Premier League 2 Division One (England) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Aston Villa U21 to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Burnley U21 0–1 Aston Villa U21.
Going into the match, Burnley U21 had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 18. Aston Villa U21 had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 24 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Burnley U21's last 10 and 8 of Aston Villa U21's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Burnley U21 averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Aston Villa U21 averaged 2.00 scored and 2.33 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.64 goals from Burnley U21 and 1.75 from Aston Villa U21. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 40%, against 31%, 21% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Burnley U21 (green) and Aston Villa U21 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley U21 | DWLWL | 1.60 | 1.80 | 70% | 70% |
| Aston Villa U21 | LDWDL | 1.90 | 2.40 | 80% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 66% | 1.38 |
| Double Chance 1X | 56% | 1.50 |
| Aston Villa U21 Win | 45% | 1.90 |
| 1-1 | 9% | 10.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
- Burnley U21 form and statistics
- Aston Villa U21 form and statistics
- Premier League 2 Division One statistics
Other Premier League 2 Division One matches that day
- Liverpool U21 vs Reading U21 · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Premier League 2 Division One
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.22