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First League · Bulgaria
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Botev Vratsa host Spartak Varna in the First League (Bulgaria) on 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — Botev Vratsa to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 79% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Botev Vratsa 0–1 Spartak Varna.
Going into the match, Botev Vratsa had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 20. Spartak Varna had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Botev Vratsa's last 10 and 4 of Spartak Varna's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Botev Vratsa averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Spartak Varna averaged 0.89 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.16 goals from Botev Vratsa and 1.14 from Spartak Varna. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 34%, against 53%, 26% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 66%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Botev Vratsa (green) and Spartak Varna (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botev Vratsa | LDDWL | 0.90 | 2.00 | 50% | 70% |
| Spartak Varna | LDDDL | 1.00 | 1.50 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 May 2026 · Botev Vratsa 2–1 Spartak Varna
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 79% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.73 |
| Botev Vratsa Win | 52% | 1.80 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 51% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.