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Goiano - 2 · Brazil
Bom Jesus EC vs Morrinhos prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Bom Jesus EC host Morrinhos in the Goiano - 2 (Brazil) on 7 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.65, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Bom Jesus EC 3–2 Morrinhos.
Going into the match, Bom Jesus EC had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 10. Morrinhos had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Bom Jesus EC's last 10 and 8 of Morrinhos's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Bom Jesus EC averaged 1.13 goals scored and 0.63 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Morrinhos averaged 1.38 scored and 1.63 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.82 goals from Bom Jesus EC and 1.00 from Morrinhos. From that it rates a home win at 56%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 20%, against 53%, 26% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 47%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Bom Jesus EC (green) and Morrinhos (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bom Jesus EC | WDDDD | 1.30 | 1.00 | 60% | 40% |
| Morrinhos | LWLDW | 1.20 | 1.40 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 30 Jul 2026 · Morrinhos 1–2 Bom Jesus EC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| Bom Jesus EC Win | 53% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.72 |
| Bom Jesus EC HT & FT | 35% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.