Benfica vs Alverca prediction and preview

2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UTC · Estádio da Luz, Lisbon

The PunterPick prediction

Over 3.5 GoalsOdds 1.91Market probability 48%

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Benfica host Alverca in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 2 Nov 2026, 20:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 3.5 Goals — more than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.91, which the bookmaker market rated at about 48% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Going into the match, Benfica had won 9, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 29 and conceding 8. Alverca had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 13 conceded.

Both teams scored in 6 of Benfica's last 10 and 6 of Alverca's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Benfica averaged 3.21 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Alverca averaged 0.90 scored and 1.10 conceded across 10.

Our team-strength model expects about 2.25 goals from Benfica and 0.80 from Alverca. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 11%, against 81%, 12% and 7% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 36%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Benfica (green) and Alverca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form57% – 43%

Attack57% – 43%

Defence50% – 50%

Head-to-head100% – 0%

Goals67% – 33%

Overall strength60% – 39%

Form before the match

Team	Last 5	Scored	Conceded	BTTS	O2.5
Benfica	WWWWW	2.90	0.80	60%	80%
Alverca	LDWWW	1.30	1.30	60%	50%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

Market	Our probability	Odds
1st Half Over 0.5 Goals	77%	1.20
Benfica HT & FT	63%	1.53
Benfica 1st Half Win	62%	1.50
Under 10.5 Corners	56%	1.67
BTTS No	53%	1.70
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals	51%	1.80
Over 3.5 Goals	48%	1.91
Benfica Win & BTTS	33%	2.62

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.