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Tweede Divisie · Netherlands

Barendrecht vs AFC Amsterdam prediction and preview

17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC

The PunterPick prediction

Over 2.5 GoalsOdds 1.50Market probability 63%Final score 4–1

Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.

Match preview

Barendrecht host AFC Amsterdam in the Tweede Divisie (Netherlands) on 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.

Final score: Barendrecht 4–1 AFC Amsterdam.

Going into the match, Barendrecht had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 16. AFC Amsterdam had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 12 conceded.

Both teams scored in 7 of Barendrecht's last 10 and 5 of AFC Amsterdam's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Barendrecht averaged 1.43 goals scored and 2.14 conceded across 7 matches; away from home AFC Amsterdam averaged 2.11 scored and 1.44 conceded across 9.

Our team-strength model expects about 2.17 goals from Barendrecht and 1.63 from AFC Amsterdam. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 28%, against 38%, 24% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.

Team comparison

Share of each factor between Barendrecht (green) and AFC Amsterdam (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.

Recent form53% – 47%
Attack53% – 47%
Defence40% – 60%
Head-to-head29% – 71%
Goals35% – 65%
Overall strength41% – 58%

Form before the match

TeamLast 5ScoredConcededBTTSO2.5
BarendrechtLWWWD1.601.6070%60%
AFC AmsterdamWLLWW2.101.2050%60%

Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.

Other markets we priced

MarketOur probabilityOdds
BTTS 1st Half - No70%1.30
BTTS Yes66%1.39
Over 2.5 Goals63%1.50
Double Chance X263%1.44
1st Half Under 1.5 Goals57%1.64
Under 10.5 Corners54%1.73
Barendrecht Win38%2.35
Draw25%3.80

Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.

More on this match

Other Tweede Divisie matches that day