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Major League Soccer · USA
Austin vs Nashville SC prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Austin host Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer (USA) on 11 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Austin 1–4 Nashville SC.
Going into the match, Austin had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 13. Nashville SC had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Austin's last 10 and 5 of Nashville SC's last 10; 5 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Austin averaged 1.79 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Nashville SC averaged 1.15 scored and 0.85 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.91 goals from Austin and 1.70 from Nashville SC. From that it rates a home win at 19%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 55%, against 25%, 25% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Austin (green) and Nashville SC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin | DDWDD | 1.30 | 1.30 | 80% | 50% |
| Nashville SC | WWDLD | 2.10 | 0.90 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.