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Serie C - Girone A · Italy
Athletic Carpi vs Lumezzane prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Athletic Carpi host Lumezzane in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Athletic Carpi 3–1 Lumezzane.
Going into the match, Athletic Carpi had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 20. Lumezzane had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 10 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Athletic Carpi's last 10 and 5 of Lumezzane's last 10; 7 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Athletic Carpi averaged 1.43 goals scored and 2.00 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Lumezzane averaged 0.63 scored and 1.25 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.37 goals from Athletic Carpi and 1.14 from Lumezzane. From that it rates a home win at 41%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 30%, against 42%, 28% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Athletic Carpi (green) and Lumezzane (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Carpi | LLLDD | 1.20 | 2.00 | 70% | 70% |
| Lumezzane | DWLLW | 1.00 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Serie C - Girone A matches that day
- Folgore Caratese vs Treviso · 17 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Serie C - Girone A
Published pick: Double Chance 1X @ 1.50