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Ettan - Norra · Sweden
Arlanda vs Järfälla prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Arlanda host Järfälla in the Ettan - Norra (Sweden) on 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Arlanda 1–3 Järfälla.
Going into the match, Arlanda had won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 14. Järfälla had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 8 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Arlanda's last 10 and 6 of Järfälla's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Arlanda averaged 1.93 goals scored and 0.93 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Järfälla averaged 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.38 goals from Arlanda and 1.36 from Järfälla. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 20%, against 58%, 21% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Arlanda (green) and Järfälla (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 Jun 2026 · Järfälla 0–2 Arlanda
- 13 Jun 2026 · Järfälla 2–3 Arlanda
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| Arlanda Win | 59% | 1.55 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 41% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Ettan - Norra matches that day
- FBK Karlstad vs Karlberg · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Ettan - Norra
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57 - Stockholm Internazionale vs Gefle IF · 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Ettan - Norra
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 1–1