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1. Division · Cyprus
Aris vs AEK Larnaca prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Aris host AEK Larnaca in the 1. Division (Cyprus) on 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Aris 1–1 AEK Larnaca.
Going into the match, Aris had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 15. AEK Larnaca had won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Aris's last 10 and 5 of AEK Larnaca's last 10; 7 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Aris averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home AEK Larnaca averaged 1.73 scored and 1.36 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.10 goals from Aris and 1.40 from AEK Larnaca. From that it rates a home win at 28%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 43%, against 33%, 29% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Aris (green) and AEK Larnaca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aris | WWLWD | 1.70 | 1.50 | 60% | 70% |
| AEK Larnaca | WWWWL | 1.80 | 0.90 | 50% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 22 May 2026 · Aris 3–4 AEK Larnaca
- 25 Apr 2026 · AEK Larnaca 2–0 Aris
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other 1. Division matches that day
- Omonia 29is Maiou vs Anorthosis · 18 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · 1. Division
Published pick: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.25 - Omonia Aradippou vs AEL · 18 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · 1. Division
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.40 · FT 0–2