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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Alverca vs Casa Pia prediction and preview
7 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC · Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverca do Ribatejo
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Alverca host Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 7 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Alverca had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Casa Pia had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Alverca's last 10 and 2 of Casa Pia's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Alverca averaged 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Casa Pia averaged 0.92 scored and 1.17 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.25 goals from Alverca and 0.58 from Casa Pia. From that it rates a home win at 52%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 16%, against 54%, 25% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 89%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Alverca (green) and Casa Pia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 79% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Alverca Win | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Primeira Liga matches that day
- Sporting CP vs Moreirense · 7 Nov 2026, 20:30 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.44 - Nacional vs Academico Viseu · 7 Nov 2026, 15:30 UTC · Primeira Liga
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.30