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Pro League · Saudi Arabia
Al Diriyah vs Al Taawon prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Al Diriyah host Al Taawon in the Pro League (Saudi Arabia) on 17 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Al Diriyah 1–1 Al Taawon.
Going into the match, Al Diriyah had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 12. Al Taawon had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Al Diriyah's last 10 and 4 of Al Taawon's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Al Diriyah averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.17 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Al Taawon averaged 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.38 goals from Al Diriyah and 0.88 from Al Taawon. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 23%, against 50%, 26% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Al Diriyah (green) and Al Taawon (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Diriyah | LDWLW | 1.00 | 1.20 | 30% | 40% |
| Al Taawon | WLDLL | 0.90 | 1.70 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Al Diriyah Win | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Pro League matches that day
- NEOM vs Al-Ettifaq · 17 Oct 2026, 15:40 UTC · Pro League
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.50 · FT 0–1