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Ettan - Södra · Sweden
AFC Malmo vs Skövde AIK prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
AFC Malmo host Skövde AIK in the Ettan - Södra (Sweden) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: AFC Malmo 4–2 Skövde AIK.
Going into the match, AFC Malmo had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 17. Skövde AIK had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of AFC Malmo's last 10 and 9 of Skövde AIK's last 10; 7 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home AFC Malmo averaged 1.82 goals scored and 1.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Skövde AIK averaged 1.31 scored and 1.85 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.42 goals from AFC Malmo and 1.41 from Skövde AIK. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 21%, against 55%, 23% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between AFC Malmo (green) and Skövde AIK (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Malmo | WWWLD | 1.50 | 1.70 | 70% | 70% |
| Skövde AIK | WWLLW | 1.90 | 1.60 | 90% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 May 2026 · Skövde AIK 0–4 AFC Malmo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| AFC Malmo Win | 56% | 1.62 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.