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Premyer Liqa · Azerbaijan
Zira vs Şamaxı FK prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Zira host Şamaxı FK in the Premyer Liqa (Azerbaijan) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Zira 1–1 Şamaxı FK.
Going into the match, Zira had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Şamaxı FK had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Zira's last 10 and 6 of Şamaxı FK's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Zira averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Şamaxı FK averaged 0.88 scored and 1.50 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.66 goals from Zira and 1.07 from Şamaxı FK. From that it rates a home win at 50%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 23%, against 50%, 28% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Zira (green) and Şamaxı FK (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.80 |
| Zira Win | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.