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III Liga - Group 1 · Poland
Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Jagiellonia II prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Ząbkovia Ząbki host Jagiellonia II in the III Liga - Group 1 (Poland) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Ząbkovia Ząbki 2–2 Jagiellonia II.
Going into the match, Ząbkovia Ząbki had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 18. Jagiellonia II had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 22 scored and 20 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Ząbkovia Ząbki's last 10 and 8 of Jagiellonia II's last 10; 6 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Ząbkovia Ząbki averaged 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Jagiellonia II averaged 1.92 scored and 1.75 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.91 goals from Ząbkovia Ząbki and 1.73 from Jagiellonia II. From that it rates a home win at 42%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 35%, against 45%, 24% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Ząbkovia Ząbki (green) and Jagiellonia II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ząbkovia Ząbki | LWWLW | 1.90 | 1.80 | 50% | 60% |
| Jagiellonia II | LLWWD | 2.20 | 2.00 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.21 |
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 1.33 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 69% | 1.34 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 52% | 1.76 |
| Ząbkovia Ząbki Win | 46% | 2.00 |
| Ząbkovia Ząbki HT & FT | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.