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League Two · England
York vs Northampton prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
York host Northampton in the League Two (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: York 1–1 Northampton.
Going into the match, York had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 14. Northampton had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 4 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of York's last 10 and 3 of Northampton's last 10; 6 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home York averaged 1.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Northampton averaged 1.00 scored and 1.82 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.16 goals from York and 0.80 from Northampton. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 24%, against 63%, 22% and 14% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 87%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between York (green) and Northampton (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| York | WDLLW | 1.80 | 1.40 | 70% | 60% |
| Northampton | LLLWD | 0.40 | 1.20 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| York Win | 62% | 1.48 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.