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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · Spain
Xerez vs Tenerife II prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Xerez host Tenerife II in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Xerez 2–1 Tenerife II.
Going into the match, Xerez had won 1, drawn 7 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Tenerife II had won 4, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 9, with 14 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Xerez's last 10 and 6 of Tenerife II's last 9; 1 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Xerez averaged 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Tenerife II averaged 0.75 scored and 1.75 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.98 goals from Xerez and 0.59 from Tenerife II. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 37% and an away win at 20%, against 47%, 29% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Xerez (green) and Tenerife II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xerez | LDLDD | 0.30 | 0.40 | 20% | 10% |
| Tenerife II | WWWLL | 1.56 | 1.67 | 67% | 89% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.77 |
| Xerez Win | 47% | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 43% | 2.20 |
| Xerez HT & FT | 30% | 3.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.