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Non League Premier - Southern Central · England
Worcester City vs Stourbridge prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Worcester City host Stourbridge in the Non League Premier - Southern Central (England) on 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Stourbridge to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Worcester City 1–3 Stourbridge.
Going into the match, Worcester City had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Stourbridge had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Worcester City's last 10 and 7 of Stourbridge's last 10; 3 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Worcester City averaged 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Stourbridge averaged 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.09 goals from Worcester City and 0.87 from Stourbridge. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 27%, against 38%, 28% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Worcester City (green) and Stourbridge (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worcester City | LWDLD | 0.90 | 1.10 | 40% | 30% |
| Stourbridge | WLDWL | 1.10 | 1.60 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.39 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
| Stourbridge Win | 35% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.