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Wales vs Norway prediction and preview
1 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Wales host Norway in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 1 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Norway Win — Norway to win. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Wales 2–1 Norway.
Going into the match, Wales had won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 matches, scoring 2 and conceding 6. Norway had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Wales's last 4 and 10 of Norway's last 10; 1 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Wales averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 1 matches; away from home Norway averaged 2.25 scored and 1.00 conceded across 4.
The 1X2 prices imply about 15% for Wales, 20% for the draw and 66% for Norway once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Wales (green) and Norway (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Norway Win | 66% | 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.