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Wales vs Denmark prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Wales host Denmark in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 4 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Wales 0–1 Denmark.
Going into the match, Wales had won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Denmark had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5, with 8 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Wales's last 5 and 3 of Denmark's last 5; 2 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Wales averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Denmark averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 2.
The 1X2 prices imply about 25% for Wales, 26% for the draw and 49% for Denmark once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Wales (green) and Denmark (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 5 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Sep 2026 · Denmark 2–0 Wales
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| Denmark Win | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.