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Veikkausliiga · Finland
VPS vs Gnistan prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
VPS host Gnistan in the Veikkausliiga (Finland) on 12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: VPS 1–0 Gnistan.
Going into the match, VPS had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 18. Gnistan had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of VPS's last 10 and 8 of Gnistan's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home VPS averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Gnistan averaged 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.50 goals from VPS and 1.20 from Gnistan. From that it rates a home win at 43%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 29%, against 39%, 29% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between VPS (green) and Gnistan (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jun 2026 · Gnistan 1–1 VPS
- 9 May 2026 · VPS 1–1 Gnistan
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.