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Serie A · Brazil
Vitoria vs Chapecoense-sc prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vitoria host Chapecoense-sc in the Serie A (Brazil) on 7 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 75% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vitoria 4–0 Chapecoense-sc.
Going into the match, Vitoria had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 14. Chapecoense-sc had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Vitoria's last 10 and 7 of Chapecoense-sc's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vitoria averaged 1.89 goals scored and 0.94 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Chapecoense-sc averaged 0.89 scored and 1.47 conceded across 19.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.93 goals from Vitoria and 1.04 from Chapecoense-sc. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 19%, against 57%, 25% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 81%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vitoria (green) and Chapecoense-sc (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitoria | LDWLL | 1.00 | 1.40 | 30% | 40% |
| Chapecoense-sc | DDLWL | 1.10 | 1.50 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 70% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| Vitoria Win | 57% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.