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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Vitória SC vs Maritimo prediction and preview
23 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vitória SC host Maritimo in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 23 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Vitória SC Win — Vitória SC to win. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Vitória SC had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Maritimo had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Vitória SC's last 10 and 8 of Maritimo's last 10; 2 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vitória SC averaged 1.55 goals scored and 0.45 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Maritimo averaged 1.13 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.20 goals from Vitória SC and 0.78 from Maritimo. From that it rates a home win at 45%, a draw at 33% and an away win at 23%, against 56%, 26% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 45%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vitória SC (green) and Maritimo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC | WLWDL | 0.70 | 1.00 | 30% | 20% |
| Maritimo | WLDLL | 1.20 | 1.60 | 80% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Vitória SC Win | 57% | 1.67 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.