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Serie D - Girone C · Italy
Virtus Bolzano vs Calvi Noale prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Virtus Bolzano host Calvi Noale in the Serie D - Girone C (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 12 — either side to win, with no draw. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Virtus Bolzano 1–3 Calvi Noale.
Going into the match, Virtus Bolzano had won 2, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 6 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 20. Calvi Noale had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 9, with 9 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of Virtus Bolzano's last 6 and 2 of Calvi Noale's last 9; 5 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Virtus Bolzano averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Calvi Noale averaged 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.12 goals from Virtus Bolzano and 1.71 from Calvi Noale. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 50%, against 34%, 28% and 38% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 74%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Virtus Bolzano (green) and Calvi Noale (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Bolzano | LWLWL | 0.67 | 3.33 | 33% | 83% |
| Calvi Noale | LWDDL | 1.00 | 0.56 | 22% | 11% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.76 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| Calvi Noale Win | 38% | 2.40 |
| 0-1 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.