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UEFA Champions League · International
Villarreal vs Napoli prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Villarreal host Napoli in the UEFA Champions League (International) on 13 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Villarreal 3–1 Napoli.
Going into the match, Villarreal had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 17. Napoli had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Villarreal's last 10 and 6 of Napoli's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Villarreal averaged 2.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Napoli averaged 1.50 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.28 goals from Villarreal and 1.27 from Napoli. From that it rates a home win at 59%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 20%, against 44%, 26% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Villarreal (green) and Napoli (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | LWWLL | 1.70 | 1.70 | 80% | 80% |
| Napoli | WDWLL | 1.90 | 1.10 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 80% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 62% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.