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Serie B · Brazil
Vila Nova vs Novorizontino prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Vila Nova host Novorizontino in the Serie B (Brazil) on 18 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Vila Nova 2–2 Novorizontino.
Going into the match, Vila Nova had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Novorizontino had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Vila Nova's last 10 and 7 of Novorizontino's last 10; 1 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Vila Nova averaged 1.75 goals scored and 0.56 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Novorizontino averaged 1.83 scored and 0.94 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.28 goals from Vila Nova and 1.15 from Novorizontino. From that it rates a home win at 38%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 32%, against 35%, 30% and 35% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Vila Nova (green) and Novorizontino (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | WDWWW | 1.10 | 0.60 | 10% | 10% |
| Novorizontino | WWWDL | 2.40 | 0.80 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jun 2026 · Novorizontino 2–1 Vila Nova
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.36 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Vila Nova Win | 35% | 2.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.