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Regionalliga - Nord · Germany
VfB Lübeck vs St. Pauli II prediction and preview
17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
VfB Lübeck host St. Pauli II in the Regionalliga - Nord (Germany) on 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.43, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: VfB Lübeck 4–1 St. Pauli II.
Going into the match, VfB Lübeck had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 18. St. Pauli II had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of VfB Lübeck's last 10 and 5 of St. Pauli II's last 10; 7 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home VfB Lübeck averaged 1.56 goals scored and 1.13 conceded across 16 matches; away from home St. Pauli II averaged 1.46 scored and 2.23 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.79 goals from VfB Lübeck and 1.17 from St. Pauli II. From that it rates a home win at 51%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 24%, against 45%, 25% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between VfB Lübeck (green) and St. Pauli II (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Lübeck | WDWWD | 1.40 | 1.80 | 80% | 70% |
| St. Pauli II | LLLWW | 1.90 | 1.80 | 50% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 69% | 1.33 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 69% | 1.32 |
| BTTS Yes | 65% | 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.46 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.68 |
| VfB Lübeck Win | 45% | 2.02 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 43% | 2.14 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.
Other Regionalliga - Nord matches that day
- Kickers Emden vs Phönix Lübeck · 17 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC · Regionalliga - Nord
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.32 · FT 2–2 - SSV Jeddeloh vs Werder Bremen II · 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC · Regionalliga - Nord
Published pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.30 - Hannover 96 II vs Schöningen · 17 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC · Regionalliga - Nord
Published pick: Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.66 · FT 4–2