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Liga de Expansión MX · Mexico
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Venados FC host Leones Negros UDG in the Liga de Expansión MX (Mexico) on 10 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Venados FC 1–1 Leones Negros UDG.
Going into the match, Venados FC had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 23 and conceding 21. Leones Negros UDG had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of Venados FC's last 10 and 7 of Leones Negros UDG's last 10; 9 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Venados FC averaged 3.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Leones Negros UDG averaged 2.00 scored and 1.29 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.26 goals from Venados FC and 1.81 from Leones Negros UDG. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 31%, against 49%, 25% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Venados FC (green) and Leones Negros UDG (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venados FC | WWLWL | 2.30 | 2.10 | 90% | 90% |
| Leones Negros UDG | WWLDW | 2.30 | 1.40 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 12 Apr 2026 · Venados FC 2–1 Leones Negros UDG
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.29 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.68 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Venados FC Win | 48% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 36% | 2.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.